As 2014 draws to a close, it might well be remembered as the year of air quality alarmism. Given that air pollutants have fallen markedly since 1990, life expectancy in the UK from birth is at record levels, the pension age is being raised, and the Government struggles with the increased cost of elderly care, we might well ask where are the headline-grabbing 29,000 who supposedly die each year due to air pollution?
The fact is that the 29,000 aren’t real people – they are merely an extrapolation of ‘life years lost’ guesswork based on ‘junk epidemiology.’
Even the Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants (CoMEAP) that produced this figure in 2010 (based on 2008 pollution levels) admits that it: “considers it very unlikely that this represents the number of individuals affected”. Instead it speculates that “air pollution, acting together with other factors, may have made some smaller contribution to the earlier deaths of up to 200,000 people”.
A paper published in The Lancet in March 2014 purported to have studied the “effects of long-term exposure to air pollution on natural-cause mortality” exemplifies what I mean by ‘junk epidemiology’. Just for starters, mortalities were mostly from the 1990s, yet air pollution was estimated using 2008 to 2011 data! Perhaps Client Earth would like to take up the cases of people killed in the 1990s by air pollution in the 2000s?
This brings me to Client Earth’s hollow court victory over the failure of some areas of the UK to meet EU 2010 targets for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (‘Pressure grows for air quality action following European court ruling’ LTT 28 Nov).
Government money is taxpayers’ money, so the burden of fines, new taxes levied, damage to the economy and mobility as a result of the ruling will be shouldered by the British people.
The economy that sustains us all runs on diesel and petrol, providing the wealth that has increased our life expectancy. Perhaps we should be fining the EU, given the fact that Euro V diesel engines and the accompanying flawed Particulate Filter (DPF) technology imposed by the EU has apparently increased their NOx exhaust emissions back to 1992 levels – a demonstration that the EU focusing on individual exhaust components can make emissions of other components much worse.
Furthermore, it’s a known fact that a proportion of UK NOx is blown over from mainland Europe. Perhaps we should fine Boris Johnson who, as custodian of London’s congestion charge, has exempted ‘low CO2’ diesel cars along with diesel buses and taxis.
Better still, maybe we should tell the EU what to do with their targets and fines – another reason for seeking an exit from the EU sooner rather than later.
I’ll finish with some statistics that are much more reliable than epidemiological guesswork: the average UK life expectancy is 78 for men and 82 for women. In Kensington & Chelsea (average salary £88,000) it is 85 for men and 90 for women. In Glasgow (average salary £23,500) it is 71 for men and 78 for women. Life expectancy is related to a number of factors, including genetics, wealth, lifestyle, and environment, but the balance of these factors in modern times is strongly positive in favour of greater longevity.
Let’s not jeopardise our new-found longevity with deeply flawed policies based on unfounded environmental alarmism. Instead, let’s continue to reduce air pollution on an achievable timescale rather than one set by the broken and dictatorial EU.
